Geometric distribution
Definition
The geometric distribution is a discrete distribution
having propabiity
\begin{eqnarray}
\mathrm{Pr}(X=k) &=& p(1-p)^{k-1}
\\
&& (k=1,2,\cdots)
\end{eqnarray}
, where $0 \leq p \leq 1$.
Example: Dice
We roll a cubic dice many times,
and let $X$ be the number of times until we roll a $1$.
The probability that $X = k$ obeys the geometric distribution for $p = \frac{1}{6}$,
\begin{eqnarray}
\mathrm{Pr}(X=k) &=& \frac{1}{6} \Big( 1- \frac{1}{6} \Big)^{k-1}
\\
&& (k=1,2,\cdots)
\end{eqnarray}
Explanation
Let $p$ be the probability rolling a $1$.
Assuming that the cubic dice is symmetric without any distortion,
\begin{eqnarray}
p=\frac{1}{6}
\end{eqnarray}
The probability of rolling not $1$ is
\begin{eqnarray}
1-p=\frac{5}{6}
\end{eqnarray}
We roll the dice until we roll a $1$.
The probability of not rolling a $1$, if we roll a dice $k-1$ times is $(1-p)^{1-k}$.
So, the probability of rolling a $1$ after the $k-1$ rolls is
\begin{eqnarray}
p(1-p)^{1-k} = \frac{1}{6} \Big( 1- \frac{1}{6} \Big)^{k-1}
\end{eqnarray}
, which is the geometric distribution for $p=\frac{1}{6}$.
Expectation value
The expectation value of random variable $X$, if $X$ obeys the
geometric distribution, is
Proof
Since $X$ obeys the
geometric distribution,
, the expectation value is
$$
\tag{1}
$$
To find the sum in the right-hand side, we use
Taylor expansion of function $1/(1-x)$,
. The derivative of the left-hand side is
, and that of the right-hand side is
. We thus have
.
If we put $x= 1-p$,
this equation becomes
.
Substituting this into $(1)$, we obtain
.
Specific examples
The figure below describes the geometric distribution for $p=\frac{1}{2}$ (
green)、
, $p=\frac{1}{4}$ (
blue)、
$p=\frac{1}{8}$ (
pink).
The expectation value is
The smaller $p$ is,
the flatter the graph is,
and the expected value increases.
Variance and Standard deviation
The variance and the standard devation of random variable $X$, if $X$ obeys the
geometric distribution, are
\begin{eqnarray}
V(X) &=& \frac{1-p}{p^2}
\\
\\
\sigma(X) &=& \sqrt{V(X)}
\\
&=& \sqrt{\frac{1-p}{p^2}}
\end{eqnarray}
Proof
In general,
the variance is the difference between the expectation value of the square and the square of the expectation value, i.e.,
Since
the expectation value is
$
E(X) = \frac{1}{p}
$
,
we have
$$
\tag{1}
$$
To obtain the variance,
we thus need to derive the expectation of $X^2$.
The expectation value of $X^2$ with the
geometric distribution is
\begin{eqnarray}
E(X^2) &=& \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} k^2 \hspace{0.5mm} \mathrm{Pr}(X=k)
\\
&=& \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} k^2 \hspace{0.5mm} p(1-p)^{k-1}
\\
&=& p \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} k^2 \hspace{0.5mm} (1-p)^{k-1}
\end{eqnarray}
$$
\tag{2}
$$
In order to obtain the sum in the right-hand side,
we focus on the Taylor expansion of 1/(1−x),
and differentiate both sides:
We multiply the both sides by x,
and differentiate both sides:
We put
$x=1-p$,
and substitute this into $(2)$,
From this and $(1)$, we obtain
Therefore,
the standard deviation $\sigma(X)$ is
\begin{eqnarray}
\sigma(X) &=& \sqrt{V(X)}
\\
&=& \sqrt{\frac{1-p}{p^2} }
\end{eqnarray}
Specific examples :
The figure below describes the geometric distribution for $p=\frac{1}{2}$ (
green)、
, $p=\frac{1}{4}$ (
blue)、
$p=\frac{1}{8}$ (
pink).
The variance is、
\begin{eqnarray}
V(X)
= \left\{
\begin{array}{cc}
2 & (p=\frac{1}{2})
\\
12 & (p=\frac{1}{4})
\\
56 & (p=\frac{1}{8})
\end{array}
\right.
\end{eqnarray}
The smaller $p$ is,
the flatter the graph is,
and the variance increases.